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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 9

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-M.Hollins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EP