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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 41

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback. Las Vegas challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to TEN 2, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-10-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.34 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model