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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 14

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.79 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model