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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to LV 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.42 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model