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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 13

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.81 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model