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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 4

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 4, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP