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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(11:35) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 2-M.Brown (6-D.Kendrick).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.39 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model