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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 31

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model