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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 51

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(6:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 2-M.Brown to LA 47 for 4 yards (33-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.15 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model