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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 11-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ARI 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 30 for 10 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.83 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model