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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 14-A.Lee punts 3 yards to ARI 36, Center-46-A.Brewer. 43-J.Gervase to ARI 35 for 1 yard (46-A.Brewer, 89-S.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.31 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP