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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model