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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 61

Houston Texans 20 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to CHI 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 12 for no gain (35-G.Arnold).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 20, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model