Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 69

Houston Texans 0 – Chicago Bears 3

(10:11) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to CHI 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-D.Pettis ran ob at CHI 19 for 1 yard (23-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model