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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 48

Chicago Bears 20 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 16-T.Gill punts 39 yards to HOU 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model