4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 30

Chicago Bears 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 2-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.62 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model