4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 21

Houston Texans 14 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.73 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP