Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 77

Chicago Bears 10 – Houston Texans 7

(13:45) 16-T.Gill punts 46 yards to HOU 31, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model