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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 8

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 19-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 8, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model