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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 29

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-D.Armstrong), Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.02 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model