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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 78

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to DAL 37, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin to NYG 35 for 28 yards (6-J.Gillan).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 78, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 35, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model