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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to NYG 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-R.James to NYG 12 for 1 yard (1-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.47 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 50, worth -3.24 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model