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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 40

Dallas Cowboys 6 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP