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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 10

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 19-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.38 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 10, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP