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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 24

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.87 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model