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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 22

New York Jets 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 6-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.99 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model