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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 17

New York Jets 12 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(1:02) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 20-Br.Hall INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates at CIN 3. 30-J.Bates to CIN 4 for 1 yard.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.42 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EP