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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – New York Jets 12

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to NYJ 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-31-M.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 37, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model