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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 25

New York Jets 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(:45) 6-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.58 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model