Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 95

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – New York Jets 6

(:40) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to NYJ 43, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 10-B.Berrios to CIN 47 for 10 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -3.88 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.45 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 95, worth -5.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model