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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 64

New York Jets 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(:59) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to CIN 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model