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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model