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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 57

New York Jets 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 7-B.Mann punts 47 yards to CIN 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 25 for 15 yards (21-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.78 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model