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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 17

New England Patriots 20 – Baltimore Ravens 31

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-J.Smith to BAL 9 for 8 yards (36-C.Clark).

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.82 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model