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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 38

Baltimore Ravens 28 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 9-Tucker 50th career 50+ yard FG.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.50 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP