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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 7-L.Fournette right guard to NO 9 for -1 yards (96-C.Granderson).

The Three Options

GO +3.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 8, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model