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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 42

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 32 yards to NO 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds. NO 6-M.Maye, wrist, QUESTIONABLE to return.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.95 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP