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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 5-J.Camarda punts 26 yards to NO 45, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.47 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 29, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model