Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

(10:55) 5-J.Camarda punts 39 yards to NO 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model