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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(:28) 4-B.Gillikin punts 30 yards to TB 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.81 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP