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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 86

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 5-J.Camarda punts 49 yards to NO 37, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty to NO 31 for -6 yards (79-P.O'Connor).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.87 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model