Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(3:11) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 13 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.14 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model