4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 78

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to SF 25, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.69 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP