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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 2

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is BLOCKED (27-T.Woolen), Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky, RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA 14. 30-M.Jackson for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 2, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP