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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (No Huddle) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to SEA 8 for 3 yards (56-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +3.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model