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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 25, Center-46-T.Pepper. 37-X.Crawford MUFFS catch, touched at SEA 24, RECOVERED by SF-82-R.Dwelley at SEA 22.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.40 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP