4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 54

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(1:40) (Punt formation) 7-B.Mann pass short right to 16-J.Smith pushed ob at CLE 37 for 17 yards (38-A.Green).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.21 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model