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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 39

New York Jets 14 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 6-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.28 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model