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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 17 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to NYJ 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model