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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 53

New York Jets 14 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to CLE 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model